Indian equity markets are likely to witness volatility this week due to concerns over rising cases of coronavirus and expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Further, progress surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine, related updates, US stimulus talks and global cues would dictate the market trend, traders said. "Going ahead, the market is likely to be volatile as sentiments oscillate between fear of rising COVID cases globally and optimism over vaccine progress. Investors would closely watch out development over the US stimulus talks," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
NTPC was the biggest gainer on the Sensex chart, rising 2.44 per cent, followed by JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Steel. Bajaj Finance declined over 3 per cent. Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Port and Asian Paints were the other laggards.
After heavy selling in the past two months, foreign investors have staged a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 24,454 crore in the first week of December amid stabilising global conditions and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October - the worst monthly outflow on record.
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The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
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With the rapid evolution of channels like quick-commerce and the emergence of ONDC, the Indian retail industry is 'cautiously optimistic' for 2025, in which new-age technologies such as AI and automation will play a crucial role, driving efficiency and personalisation.
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
Domestic macroeconomic data, RBI policy and developments related to the Russia-Ukraine war would be major driving factors for the stock market this week, analysts said. Moreover, FPI investment and trends in crude oil would also influence the trading sentiment, they added. "This week, the RBI credit policy will be a critical factor for Indian markets.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, Titan, Reliance Industries, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and ITC were the major gainers.
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'Investors should look to incrementally allocate towards equity from a medium-to-long term horizon.'
'One should not invest more than 5 to 10 per cent of their overall portfolio exposure in global or international funds.'
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
'Regardless of whether you invest Rs 100 or Rs 1 crore per month, risk is inevitable.' 'Positive returns at the end of the year can never be guaranteed.' 'This is a fundamental truth every SIP investor must grasp.'
'The touchstone is reciprocity which will be applied to friends and foes alike.' 'It will be a bitter pill to swallow.'
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The only silver lining in March's performance -- which otherwise dragged down the financial year's momentum -- was a 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth compared to March of the previous year. This is largely due to incentives, festival-driven gains, and new launches.
'...you evaluate three key factors before committing your money.'
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest IT services provider, continue to remain under pressure, hitting a new eight-month low of Rs 3,624.90 intraday on Tuesday before closing at Rs 3,631, down 1.19 per cent. In the past two trading sessions, the stock price has declined 4 per cent on fears of a slowing US economy.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
Stock markets are expected to remain under pressure this week due to the overhang of US presidential polls and uncertainty over global growth due to resurging cases of coronavirus, according to analysts.
The stock of India's largest listed pure play retail major Trent was down 14.76 per cent at close on Monday after a fall in revenue growth for the March quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25). The sales growth trajectory has been in a declining trend over the last few quarters, which, coupled with falling operational metrics, higher competitive intensity, and expensive valuations, has seen the stock crack about 44 per cent since its 52-week highs in October last year.
Morgan Stanley said global factors are likely to remain a key influence on India's equity returns over the next one year.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) delivered a stronger-than-expected operational performance in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25), driven by solid growth in its automotive (auto) and farm equipment segments. Higher volumes improved operating leverage, expanding margins.
Hindenburg Research, the forensic financial firm that challenged the Adani Group, took its name from the infamous airship that burst into flames upon arriving in New Jersey in 1937. And the counter to its damning report against the conglomerate was dubbed 'Operation Zeppelin,' named after the German dirigible airships used for reconnaissance and bombing during the First World War.
The broader NSE Nifty scaled a high of 10,856.55 before closing up by 55.90 points, or 0.52 per cent
'If gold's recent surge has increased its allocation beyond 15 per cent in your portfolio, now may be a good time to rebalance.'
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
Adani Ports was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, declining 1.37 per cent, followed by ITC, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, Maruti, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever and Larsen & Toubro. In contrast, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Axis Bank and Tech Mahindra were among the gainers.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
From the Sensex basket, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Asian Paints were the major laggards.
Many travellers are now opting for domestic destinations like Goa, Kerala, Rajasthan, Lakshadweep, Himachal Pradesh, and the North East.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
Trading in the domestic equity market this week will be influenced by quarterly results from TCS and Infosys, besides inflation and industrial production data as well as global trends, analysts said. Movement of the rupee, which has slumped to record lows against the US dollar, will also be tracked by investors, they added. "This week, participants will be eyeing important macroeconomic data viz IIP, CPI and WPI... Besides, the week also marks the beginning of the earnings season with IT majors like TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech and Wipro announcing their numbers along with two other heavyweights Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank," said Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Performance of the US markets, FIIs' trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on their radar, Mishra added.
